How consensus works

The number everyone has in mind

Before every release, news and data services survey dozens of economists for their forecasts and publish the median as the consensus. Bloomberg, Reuters and Dow Jones each run one, and they usually land close together. That median is the line: the number a print is measured against. When traders say a report beat or missed, they mean relative to consensus, not relative to last month.

Why the surprise is what trades

Prices already reflect what people expect. If everyone expects payrolls of +150k and the print is +150k, nothing new has been learned and markets barely move. If the print is +50k, the world is different from what was priced, and bonds rally in a second. This is why a strong report can send stocks down: strong relative to expectations means higher rates for longer, and higher rates weigh on stock valuations.

Whisper numbers are the unofficial expectations traders share among themselves when they think consensus is stale, for example after a string of hot prints. Prediction markets like Kalshi turn expectations into prices you can read directly, which makes them a useful second opinion on the line.

The house line in Mini Macro

Mini Macro proposes a house line for each print from the published consensus and market-implied values, an admin can adjust it, and it publishes 48 hours before the release. Over/under calls are judged against that line; exact guesses are judged against the actual number. A commissioner can replace the house line for their own league if they think it is wrong, and their league's over/unders get judged on their number instead. The Fed decision has no line: it is a call among hold, cut and hike.