How to read a print

The 90-second checklist

First, the headline against the line: beat, miss, or push. Second, revisions to prior months, which can flip the story. Third, the detail that matters for that report: wages in the jobs report, core and shelter in CPI, the control group in retail sales, the four-week average in claims. Fourth, what markets did in the first minute, because that tells you which of those details traders decided mattered.

Traps

Level versus change: payrolls and retail sales are reported as changes, the unemployment rate and claims as levels. Month over month versus annualized: 0.3 percent a month is not 0.3 percent inflation, it is closer to 3.7 percent a year. Seasonal adjustment: nearly every print is adjusted for the calendar, so a January drop in raw hiring is not news, but a drop in the adjusted number is. Sign conventions: a smaller number is good news for claims and inflation and bad news for payrolls.

How Mini Macro scores

Over or under the house line pays 10 points. If the print lands exactly on the line it is a push: nobody scores and streaks are untouched. An exact guess pays 50, 30 or 15 depending on how close you land, with tolerances set per indicator, and the closest guess in your league earns a 10-point bullseye. The Fed decision pays 25 for the right call.

Once a week you can double down on one over/under: 20 points if you are right, minus 10 if you are wrong. Three correct over/unders in a row add 5 points, five in a row add 10, ten in a row add 25, and a wrong call resets the streak. Points use the first published number. Revisions later never change a score.