The economy now· Updated Tue, Nov 10, cpi
The Fed hikes as inflation stays above target
The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point on September 17, to 3.75% to 4.00%. Core inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, is 3.1% over the past year, and consumer prices are up 3.9%. Employers added an average of 137,000 jobs a month over the last three months, and unemployment is 4.1%.
- Jobs: healthy, grade A+. Jobs added a month, 3-month average +137k; Unemployment rate 4.1%; Jobless claims, 4-week average 195k.
- Prices: warm, grade B−. Core PCE inflation, past year 3.1%; Consumer prices (CPI), past year 3.9%.
- Growth: healthy, grade A+. Real GDP growth last quarter, annualized 3.4%; Average of the last two quarters 2.8%.
- Spending: healthy, grade A. Retail sales, past year +6.3%; After inflation, 3-month average +0.6%.
The scoreboard
The latest reports
- CPI · Tue, Nov 10October CPIabove the 0.2% line · core m/m 0.3%0.4%
- Jobs · Fri, Nov 6October jobs reportabove the +66k line · unemployment 4.1%+165k
- Claims · Thu, Nov 5Jobless claims, week of Oct 31below the 197k line189k
- JOLTS · Tue, Nov 3September job openingsabove the 7.18M line7.52M
- GDP · Thu, Oct 29Q3 GDP, advance estimateabove the 3.2% line3.4%
- PCE · Thu, Oct 29September PCEright on the line at 0.3%0.3%
- Fed · Wed, Oct 28October Fed decisionTarget range now 3.75% to 4.00%Hold
- Sentiment · Fri, Oct 23October consumer sentimentabove the 46.3 line48.0
- Housing · Tue, Oct 20September housing startsbelow the 1.300M line · 100% of players called it1.221M
- Retail · Thu, Oct 15September retail salesabove the 0.3% line0.8%
- PPI · Thu, Oct 15September PPIabove the 0.6% line · core PPI m/m 0.7%1.3%
First-print numbers for game releases; everything else as FRED publishes it today, revisions included. More numbers are on the way: see what's next.
Next up
Call it before it lands
Claims · Thu, Nov 12 · 8:30 AM ET
How many filed for unemployment the week of Nov 7?
Picks lock in 1d 12h
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The game
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Over or under the line with one tap, or drop your dot on the exact number. Fed meetings are hold, cut or hike.
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Every call joins the Mini Macro crowd. See where you stand against every player, on each print and on the public board.
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Method
How the grade works
Each part of the economy gets a reading between cold and hot. Healthy is the middle: the economy growing, prices rising near the Fed's 2% goal, and jobs for people who want them. The further a reading sits from healthy, the lower its grade.
Running cold costs more than running hot for jobs, growth and spending. The overall grade lands halfway between the average of the four parts and the weakest one, so one part in trouble shows.
Replayed over thirty years of data, it gives the depths of 2009 and mid-2020 an F, early 2022 a D and 2017 to 2019 an A. It is Mini Macro's own yardstick, built from public numbers, not an official statistic.
- Jobs 30% of the grade
- Jobs added a month (3-month average) against about 125,000, unemployment against 4.3%, and weekly jobless claims against 230,000.
- Prices 30% of the grade
- Core PCE inflation over the past year against the Fed's 2% target, with the consumer price index alongside.
- Growth 25% of the grade
- Real GDP growth, the last two quarters annualized, against 2%.
- Spending 15% of the grade
- Retail sales over the past year after inflation, against 1.5%.
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