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Housing starts
New homes breaking ground: the part of the economy that feels mortgage rates first, and one of the noisiest numbers in the game.
What it is
The Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report counts homes on which construction began during the month. It comes out at 8:30 AM Eastern around the middle of the following month, alongside building permits and completions.
How to read the numbers
Starts are reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate: the number of homes that would be started over a full year if the month's pace held. A print of 1.3 million is that yearly pace, not the month's count. Single-family starts say more about the cycle than apartments, which arrive in lumpy batches. Permits usually lead starts by a month or two.
The monthly number moves a lot on its own. The Census Bureau's own margin of error on the monthly change is wide enough that a 10 percent swing can be noise, so look at the trend and at permits before reading much into one month.
Why markets care
Housing is where higher or lower mortgage rates show up first, so starts are an early sign of the Fed's moves reaching the real economy. Building also pulls in materials, furniture and appliances, so a slump in starts spreads.